Uncovering the potential of a new breakfast cereal

How can we grow share with a new breakfast cereal offer?

How can we grow share with a new breakfast cereal offer?

The global innovation team of one of the largest global FMCG companies asked us to advise them on their breakfast cereal portfolio strategy. The objective was to uncover concepts that have the largest incremental sales impact on our client’s current portfolio. We decided on a study to size the opportunity of each new breakfast cereal concept.

Our solution

A study to unveil winning concepts by forecasting sales, cannibalization and competitor steal.

Consumer-based sales forecasts

Fourteen concepts were tested in a gamified environment to simulate past and future purchases in a competitive context. With our model we calibrated historic sales data of in-market products to simulated sales data, allowing us to forecast sales for each concept.

Different from other forecasting models, our forecasts combine historic sales data with today's consumer needs.

Clear portfolio strategy

We derived each concept’s expected sales distribution over competitor steal, cannibalization and category growth. This analysis allowed us to recommend action for each concept in three different directions: suitable for a larger audience, segment or a no-go.

A portfolio strategy to uncover high-volume, differentiating and niche concepts.

Dynamic forecasting tool

Accounting for market parameters (e.g. target audience, distribution and pricing) established the base of our sales forecasts.

We provided our client with a tailor-made forecasting tool to simulate different scenarios and measure their impact on sales.


This study allowed us to support the client’s global innovation team with actionable recommendations on concepts to move forward with. Based on these results, they were able to strengthen their breakfast cereal portfolio strategy and further grow their share.

Take me back home